The predicted “AI Code Apocalypse” — where AI coding tools eliminate software engineering jobs — has not materialized, according to SignalFire’s annual State of Tech Talent report published June 22.
The venture firm’s study draws on data from more than 80 million companies and hundreds of millions of career profiles tracked through its Beacon platform. Its conclusion: engineering is the most durable job function at both large tech companies and early-stage startups.
The headline numbers
Overall hiring at major tech companies — including Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft — runs 25% below its 2019 baseline. Engineering roles declined by only 11% over that period. Engineers now represent 55% of all new hires at these companies, up from 46% in 2019. At early-stage startups, engineering hiring is up 7% compared to six years ago.
The pattern reflects what economists call the Jevons paradox: when a tool makes workers more efficient, the scope of what can be built expands, increasing demand rather than replacing it.
Where the cuts landed
The resilience of engineering sits alongside steep declines elsewhere. Design hiring at major tech companies fell 48%, marketing dropped 36%, and product management declined 39%. Within engineering itself, front-end positions fell roughly 25% — the steepest drop among engineering sub-roles.
Specializations have diverged sharply: AI/ML engineer roles grew 39% since the launch of ChatGPT, and research engineer roles rose 28%.
The entry-level crisis
Despite resilient headline numbers, recent graduates face a severe squeeze. New-grad hiring at major tech companies has collapsed roughly 65% since 2019, and around 76% at early-stage startups. According to SignalFire, top computer science graduates are now 45% less likely to join major tech companies than in prior years — and twice as likely to start a company instead.